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Is AOL going bankrupt?

Do you remember, “You’ve got mail?”

Do you remember, “Love @ AOL ?

Do you remember when AOL was only a dial-up BBS?

I do.  In fact, I was in Steve Case’s office once when he gave an AOL jacket to tennis great Boris Becker.  I’ll see if I can dig up a photo for you.  But here is the thing … AOL is like a distant star that exploded way out in the far reaches of the galaxy.  It’s been dead for a long time.  But, because light takes so long to travel through space – even at the speed of light – we still see it’s faint light even though it doesn’t really exist anymore.

Take a look at AOL’s meteoric trajectory and tell me how long you think it’s gonna last…

AOL members – historical growth path

• 1989 – AOL is launched for Macintosh
• 1991 – AOL is launched for MS-DOS (ugh! … still a dial-up BBS)
• 1992 – AOL introduces “chat rooms” – great place for child predators to meet up with kids
• 1993 – AOL is launched for Microsoft Windows
• 1995 – AOL is launched for Microsoft NT
• 1996 – AOL thinks maybe it’s a good idea to connect to something called the Internet
• 1998 – AOL surpasses 14 million members
• 1999  – 18 million members
• 2000 – 23 million AOL subscribers
• 2001 – 25 million AOL members
• 2002 – 26 million AOL subscribers
• 2003 – 25 million AOL members
• 2004 – 23 million AOL subscribers
• 2005 – 19 million AOL members
• 2006 – 13 million AOL subscribers
• 2007 – 9 million AOL members
• 2008 – 7 million AOL subscribers
• 2009 – 4 million AOL members
• 2010 -  1 million AOL subscribers (projected)
• 2011 – zero (0) AOL members – bankrupt, sold, out of business, defunct, acquired, gone

So what does AOL have to offer?  Love @ AOL is gone, it was taken over by Match.com years ago.  You don’t need AOL to get access to the Internet anymore.  Google’s gmail gives you a free e-mail account. Facebook lets you do all the social networking and instant message that you want.  Between Yahoo! and Google Alerts, I don’t see any fresh news coming out of AOL.  So, what value in even using AOL unless you were lucky enough to snag a your first name or nick name @aol.com?  If you have any stock left in Time Warner / AOL … it’s probably time to sell.